A Good Jobs Report with Some Noise in the Number

Let's start out with this: Economists were expecting a soft jobs number for April. Somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 jobs. We got 268,000 private sector jobs and hiring for previous months was revised upwards. Hours were up, a good sign that employers might have some incentive to bring on new workers.

But! There are two sides to an employment report. The government surveys employers to figure out how many people are hiring. And then the government surveys people to figure out how many are looking for work, how have given up looking for work, and how many say they have a job. Divide the number of people who say they are unemployed by the number of people in the labor force and you get the unemployment rate.

If the economy is creating jobs, why did the unemployment rate tick up to 9%? Some of this appears to be statistical noise. Here's what I got back from Daiwa Capital Markets' Michael Moran when I asked him about this:

"I view it as just a random shift. To me, the surprise was how fast unemployment was declining given the growth of the economy. The economy grew only moderately in Q4 and Q1, yet the unemployment fell a full percentage point from November. The quick decline was probably an aberration, and now we are coming back to reality."

The Household Survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics found the number of jobs in the economy fell by 190,000 last month. Unemployment went up by 205,000 jobs. Should we believe it? Well, consider that the Labor Department surveys about 50,000 households, but 400,000 employers.

There is a lot more information in the April employment report from employers. Which is why Mark Zandi at Moody's Analytics is taking this view:

"The Household survey results are very volatile month to month due to the small number of households that participate in the survey. Since the job recovery began at the start of 2010, the job gains in the household and payroll surveys are very similar."

Bottom line: Don't worry, be happy -- a little. We still are in a deep hole and there are still 5.8 million people who have been unemployed for more than six months. We need to dig out faster, but we are digging.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/05/a_good_jobs_report_with_some_n.html

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