Brokered Conventions, Grand Bargains, and the Turning Tide of Federal Deficits

Every four years -- count on it -- some political reporter will write a story about the odds of a brokered convention. You know, a deadlocked presidential nomination battle that ends when the winner emerges from a smoke-filled room only to find our intrepid reporter has already broken the story!

What could be better for a political reporter than that?

Never happens, but reporters can dream -- and write about it.

The economics reporter must settle for something less cinematic. Our version of the "Odds for a Brokered Convention" story is the "Grand Bargain Struck on Deficit."

There is no smoke-filled room in this narrative, merely a drab conference center at Andrews Air Force Base or some other location where reporters can be kept a respectable distance away. The parties emerge late in the evening to pronounce a deal that turns, not on promises to the Florida delegation, but on adjustments to inflation measurements in the Social Security formula that better reflect the actual rate of change in the cost of living.

(Can you imagine anything better? I thought you could.)

Still, I get excited about talk of Grand Bargains and the odds of this happening -- never good to begin with -- are getting better. The tide is moving to deficit reduction. The last-hour deal to avert a government shutdown can be read as a sign of seriousness and progress.

Next, the President will lay out his long-run budget plan on Wednesday. House Republicans have staked out their position. Our grand bargainers are setting the table.

Or not. The problem with Grand Bargains is that they are rare, in part because they ask too much. Problems are rarely solved in a comprehensive way by a small crowd at the table. More likely, Democrats and Republicans will gather for years at many conference tables, cutting many small and medium-sized bargains along the way. At the end of this -- three years? five? -- we'll look back and declare it adds up to a Grand Bargain. If that happens, it will still be a great story.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/04/brokered_conventions_grand_bar.html

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